Economic Wisdom From Guggenheim Partners
Macroeconomic and Investment Research
In this five-part video series, Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses how investors can navigate a broad range of market risks as we approach the end of the current business cycle.
Part 1: Credit Cycle Downturn
The markets will be tested by passive investors’ reaction to ratings downgrades.
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Part 2: Crowding Out
Government borrowing and the Fed balance sheet runoff are flooding T-bill supply, contributing to rising rates, and affecting other borrowers.
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Part 3: Oil and Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical tensions could give rise to substantial supply disruptions.
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Part 4: The Pig in the Python
The transitory effects of fiscal stimulus won’t offset a slow growth outlook.
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Part 5: Navigating Your Portfolio
Ideas for portfolio positioning amid tight credit spreads and a flattening yield curve.
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Brian Smedley About The Guggenheim Expert
Brian Smedley has been Managing Director and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research at Guggenheim Investments, Inc. since November 16, 2015. Mr. Smedley joined Guggenheim Investments from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, where he served as its Director of U.S. Rates Research. He served as United States Rates Strategist since June 2010. Prior to this, he spent five years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, including Senior Trader and Analyst for the Buy-Side Analysis and Relationship Management Staff and Foreign Exchange and Investments Staff, and Senior Economic Analyst for the Emerging Markets and International Affairs Group. Previously, he was employed at the FX desk and in the emerging markets group as a Senior Economic Analyst covering Latin America macroeconomics, commodity markets, and sovereign risk issues. He served as Director of BofA Merrill Lynch. As a graduate student he worked at the U.S. Treasury Department and the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He ranked number three in the Short Duration category of the Institutional Investor Fixed Income Research survey in 2011 and 2012. Mr. Smedley graduated Summa cum Laude with a B.S. in Finance and Economics from Utah State University and an MA in International Development Studies from the Elliot School of International Affairs at George Washington University.
Brian Smedley has been Managing Director and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research at Guggenheim Investments, Inc. since November 16, 2015. Mr. Smedley joined Guggenheim Investments from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, where he served as its Director of U.S. Rates Research. He served as United States Rates Strategist since June 2010. Prior to this, he spent five years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, including Senior Trader and Analyst for the Buy-Side Analysis and Relationship Management Staff and Foreign Exchange and Investments Staff, and Senior Economic Analyst for the Emerging Markets and International Affairs Group. Previously, he was employed at the FX desk and in the emerging markets group as a Senior Economic Analyst covering Latin America macroeconomics, commodity markets, and sovereign risk issues. He served as Director of BofA Merrill Lynch. As a graduate student he worked at the U.S. Treasury Department and the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He ranked number three in the Short Duration category of the Institutional Investor Fixed Income Research survey in 2011 and 2012. Mr. Smedley graduated Summa cum Laude with a B.S. in Finance and Economics from Utah State University and an MA in International Development Studies from the Elliot School of International Affairs at George Washington University.
Important Notices and Disclosures
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.
This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
© 2018 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. This material is distributed or presented for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.
This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this material may be reproduced or referred to in any form, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
© 2018 Guggenheim Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. Guggenheim, Guggenheim Partners and Innovative Solutions. Enduring Values. are registered trademarks of Guggenheim Capital, LLC.
IZALE Financial Group is hereby authorized to use the copyrighted report “Hazards of the Next Two Years,” by Guggenheim Partners, solely for the purpose of posting on its company blog, found here.
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