Recession Outlook Summary

• Our Recession Probability Model rose across all horizons in the first quarter of 2019. While near-term recession probability is limited, the probability of a recession occurring over the next 24 months has more than doubled.
• The deterioration in leading indicators, inversion of the yield curve, and tightening of monetary policy all contribute to rising recession risks. As we expect these trends to continue in 2019, we should see recession risk rise throughout the year.
  
• We maintain our view that the recession could begin as early as the first half of 2020, but will be watching for signs that the dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could extend the cycle.
• The next recession will not be as severe as the last one, but it could be more prolonged than usual because policymakers at home and abroad have limited tools to fight the downturn.
• Credit markets are likely to be hit harder than usual in the recession. This stems from the record high ratio of corporate debt to GDP and the likelihood of a massive fallen angel wave.
• When recessions hit, the magnitude of the associated bear market in stocks is driven by how high valuations were in the preceding bull market. Given that valuations reached elevated levels in this cycle, we expect a severe bear market of 40–50 percent in the next recession.
  

Recession Expectations Go Mainstream

Important Notices and Disclosures

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. This material is distributed for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This article is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.

This material contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.
Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited and Guggenheim Partners India Management.

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IZALE Financial Group is hereby authorized to use the copyrighted report “Forecasting the Next Recession: How Severe Will the Next Recession Be?” by Guggenheim Partners, solely for the purpose of posting on its company blog, found here.

Consult with a professional advisor about your particular situation.

Are insurance benefits provided to board members considered taxable income? The answer is largely “yes,” but also, “it depends.”

“The general rule under the tax code is something provided in return for services rendered is taxable income to the recipient (board member),” says R. Scott Richardson, JD, CLU, ChFC, president/CEO, IZALE Financial Group, a CUES Supplier member in Elgin, Illinois. “However, insurance benefits can be treated differently.”

Richardson explains that while the value of accident and health insurance is not taxable for employees, it will likely be taxable for board members. 

“There are narrow exceptions where it would not be taxable income,” so consulting a tax advisor is worthwhile, he says.

In the case of life insurance, rather than take out a formal policy, credit unions can promise to pay a benefit (out of pocket) upon a board member’s death, in which case the beneficiaries would report the amount as ordinary income. The CU is essentially acting as its own insurance.

However, in the event of a policy paid for by the CU, Richardson reports there is a choice: “Either the board member reports the ‘economic benefit’ of the coverage as income each year, resulting in an income-tax-free benefit, or the board member does not report economic benefit, resulting in a benefit subject to ordinary income taxes.”

Life insurance is generally income-tax free except when someone else pays for it, in which case there’s some “economic benefit” to the board member, he explains. If the board member owns the policy but premiums are paid by the CU, the premiums paid by the CU equal the economic benefit and are taxable income. If the CU owns the policy and allows the board member to designate a beneficiary, then the right to designate the beneficiary is the economic benefit. If the board member reports the value of that economic benefit each year as taxable income, then death proceeds received would be income-tax free. If the board member does not report the value of the economic benefit each year, then death proceeds would be subject to ordinary income tax.
With long-term care insurance, Richardson notes that any benefits received under a qualified policy are not taxable, though the premiums likely would be. “Since board members are not employees, they would be treated as ‘self-employed’ for income-tax purposes.”

Jim Patterson, partner with Minneapolis-based law firm Sherman & Patterson, similarly notes that directors are under different tax rules than employees. “… directors are not subject to some of the tax benefits that employees get,” he said. “In the case of long-term care insurance, for instance, if that were provided to an executive employee of the credit union, it can be done so on a tax-free basis. But for directors, who are not employees, that would be considered taxable income.”

Even if these benefits are taxable, Richardson says there are still advantages for both the board member and the credit union. “First, paying taxes on $1 of reportable income requires much less cash flow than paying the $1 of premium out of pocket. Second, there are pricing discounts and underwriting concessions available to groups that can be the difference between being affordable and attainable versus not.”

Richardson concludes with advice to consult with tax professionals “to understand the full implications.”

Diane Franklin is a freelance writer based in Missouri. This article published with expressed permission from CUES

Despite lower corporate tax rates and a narrower spread between traditional bank-eligible investments and Bank/Business-Owned Life Insurance, BOLI continues be a powerful asset for your balance sheet. The earnings are competitive for the risk and accrue without any tax provisions. The book value is stable - rising interest rates won't result in mark-to-market adjustments like with bonds. At its core it's still life insurance and we've seen firsthand how the life insurance proceeds have provided invaluable benefits to an insured officer's family as well as to the institution.
 
BOLI crediting rates have remained somewhat stable since the beginning of 2018, and programs that deliver 3% or more yield out of the gate are readily available. While those rates have remained stable, market rates have moved generally upward even if in fits and starts. As of March 25, the 10-year Treasury bond was a mere 3 bps higher yield than the 13-week Treasury bill (with an inversion with shorter duration); the result is about 75bps-100bps of spread between 10-year Treasuries and BOLI. That's down from the historical average of over 200bps. That narrow spread has many institutions re-evaluating their inforce BOLI or delaying their next purchase of it. The thought goes that until there is greater reward for the risk of going longer, stay short.  
 
Ignoring the immediate lost earnings from staying on the sidelines, trying to time entry to the markets is challenging to say the least. What if instead of measuring your BOLI returns against fixed-income assets like bonds, you could measure them against an equity-index? Before you get too far on the ledge - we're not talking about exposing cash value to an index; cash values will always have stable book value treatment. What we're talking about is a transparent way to determine the crediting rate by measuring the change in an index, most commonly the S&P 500.
 
"Indexed Universal Life" or IUL has been available on a retail basis for more than 20 years, and in 2018 IUL accounted for almost 30% of permanent life sales. While widely available on a retail basis, it wasn't until recently that IUL became available with a single-premium, 100%-beginning-cash-value design associated with BOLI.

With IUL, the carrier offers a "floor" or minimum crediting rate (along with full book-value treatment) and a "cap" or maximum crediting rate that can flow from the change in the index.  

• If the index is negative or below the floor, your crediting rate is the floor.  
• If the index is greater than the cap, your crediting rate is the cap.  
• If the index is in between, your crediting rate is the index.

While your crediting rate from month-to-month will vary between the floor and the cap, when back-tested against 50 years of actual S&P performance, IUL has impressive results. The table below shows the current floor and cap for two carriers that offer IUL BOLI. One is decidedly more conservative than the other in its design, however, the expected rewards may be worth the "less conservative" design.